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ceebeegeeFascinating discussion about how to counter terrorism by treating them as criminals, not political prisoners. Former FBI agent and terrorism analyst Mike German:
Winthrop, Mass.: Why does the government and the press continue to imply each terrorist attack changes the real world? The fact is Al Qaeda has been planning, and often attempting large attacks on the U.S. since at least 1998. The threat of large attacks comes solely from the trained core members so the threat is basically unchanged from 1998...[snip]
The 100 USSR trained commandos would have inflicted at least 10x the damage in the U.S. in a single year that terrorists have done world wide. Why on Earth does anyone think Al Qaeda is so brilliant? They are really, really unprofessional for such an allegedly large organization.
Mike German: I agree. We have to remember that groups only resort to terrorism when they lack political or military power. The terrorists are a very small part of the community they claim to represent and all of our counterterrorism efforts should be directed at the criminals rather than the community at large.
...
Oakland, Calif.: Hi Mike: I heard an analysis on NPR this morning about the state of Al Qaeda and here what comes to my mind:
Al Qaeda started terrorist activities around early 90's and grew in sophistication and number of people they kill each time they strike. Of course 9/11 was the biggest thing they did. After we stroked them in Afghanistan their ability to commit terrific acts decreased dramatically -- 190 people in Madrid still a lot but much less than in New York and Washington and now 50 people in London. Doesn't it seem that we are winning if each time they strike it's less damaging than the previous time? Doesn't it show that they are on the run and can't build up a sophisticated and really damaging attack?
I don't want to sound cynical- I think each victim of terrorism is a tragedy but still I'd rather deal with periodic uncoordinated small scale terrorism attacks than a devastating blow like 9/11...
Mike German: They are definitely operating in a much more hostile environment, which is why they are less coordinated than before. Al Qaeda means "the base," which is very much what the Afghan training camps were- a base. That base is now destroyed, but the militant jihadist movement is still very active. If this is truly a "Global War on Terror" any successful attack anywhere in the world has to be considered a set back. Unfortunately statistics released by the National Counterterrorism Center show that terrorist attacks are increasing each year, not lessening.
...
Oakton, Va.: What exactly are the terrorists trying to accomplish with these acts? They have the will, but how do we break that will? Will the fact that the markets are doing great, that London is very much business as usual, that the G-8 summit continued at full stride, demoralize these terrorists? How do we convince them that what they are doing, at great sacrifice to themselves, is ineffective and a waste of time?
Mike German: Great question. If you read the writings of terrorists from all different ideologies you find common themes. The goal of the terrorist attack is first, to demonstrate the power of your organization, but more importantly, to force the government you attack to react to you. Carlos Marighella, a Brazillian Communist terrorist from the 1960's wrote the "Mini-Manual of the Urban Guerrilla", a how-to manual for terrorists. In it he says the terrorist attack will draw an over-reaction from the government which will heighten oppression against the innocent and drive them to the cause of the terrorist. We need to start paying attention to what their goals are in devising our strategies. They wanted an International Jihad, a war between the west and Islam- we should be careful we don't give them exactly what they want.
You're right that our business as usual response demoralizes them, and exposes their weakness.
...
Falls Church, Va.: I wouldn't be so sure to think that our "business as usual" thinking demoralizes terrorists. It seems to me that really dedicated terrorists who have a good sense of history, count on the citizenry to stiffen their resolve at first, but then wear down over time with repeated attacks, followed by political negotiation behind the scenes for their real aims. Just look at what the IRA, PLO, and the FLN in Algeria did over time. Each group either achieved their goals outright over time, (Algeria for example) or have achieved some of their political goals by using terrorism as a political tool, (IRA in N. Ireland and the PLO in Palestine). What are your thoughts?
Mike German: Good point. The difference here is al Qaeda doesn't have a political agenda, it only has an extremist agenda.[My emphasis] The IRA, PLO, FLN all had political wings that worked to find a political solution, and used terrorism as a tactic to force the other side to come to the table. Al Qaeda is more of an extremist terrorist group, like white supremacists. Their goal is to exterminate the people they don't like and then everything will be fine. This is why they don't have any real political influence anywhere in the world, they offer no real solutions. This is why we need to treat them more like criminal organizations than political movements.
Winthrop, Mass.: Why does the government and the press continue to imply each terrorist attack changes the real world? The fact is Al Qaeda has been planning, and often attempting large attacks on the U.S. since at least 1998. The threat of large attacks comes solely from the trained core members so the threat is basically unchanged from 1998...[snip]
The 100 USSR trained commandos would have inflicted at least 10x the damage in the U.S. in a single year that terrorists have done world wide. Why on Earth does anyone think Al Qaeda is so brilliant? They are really, really unprofessional for such an allegedly large organization.
Mike German: I agree. We have to remember that groups only resort to terrorism when they lack political or military power. The terrorists are a very small part of the community they claim to represent and all of our counterterrorism efforts should be directed at the criminals rather than the community at large.
...
Oakland, Calif.: Hi Mike: I heard an analysis on NPR this morning about the state of Al Qaeda and here what comes to my mind:
Al Qaeda started terrorist activities around early 90's and grew in sophistication and number of people they kill each time they strike. Of course 9/11 was the biggest thing they did. After we stroked them in Afghanistan their ability to commit terrific acts decreased dramatically -- 190 people in Madrid still a lot but much less than in New York and Washington and now 50 people in London. Doesn't it seem that we are winning if each time they strike it's less damaging than the previous time? Doesn't it show that they are on the run and can't build up a sophisticated and really damaging attack?
I don't want to sound cynical- I think each victim of terrorism is a tragedy but still I'd rather deal with periodic uncoordinated small scale terrorism attacks than a devastating blow like 9/11...
Mike German: They are definitely operating in a much more hostile environment, which is why they are less coordinated than before. Al Qaeda means "the base," which is very much what the Afghan training camps were- a base. That base is now destroyed, but the militant jihadist movement is still very active. If this is truly a "Global War on Terror" any successful attack anywhere in the world has to be considered a set back. Unfortunately statistics released by the National Counterterrorism Center show that terrorist attacks are increasing each year, not lessening.
...
Oakton, Va.: What exactly are the terrorists trying to accomplish with these acts? They have the will, but how do we break that will? Will the fact that the markets are doing great, that London is very much business as usual, that the G-8 summit continued at full stride, demoralize these terrorists? How do we convince them that what they are doing, at great sacrifice to themselves, is ineffective and a waste of time?
Mike German: Great question. If you read the writings of terrorists from all different ideologies you find common themes. The goal of the terrorist attack is first, to demonstrate the power of your organization, but more importantly, to force the government you attack to react to you. Carlos Marighella, a Brazillian Communist terrorist from the 1960's wrote the "Mini-Manual of the Urban Guerrilla", a how-to manual for terrorists. In it he says the terrorist attack will draw an over-reaction from the government which will heighten oppression against the innocent and drive them to the cause of the terrorist. We need to start paying attention to what their goals are in devising our strategies. They wanted an International Jihad, a war between the west and Islam- we should be careful we don't give them exactly what they want.
You're right that our business as usual response demoralizes them, and exposes their weakness.
...
Falls Church, Va.: I wouldn't be so sure to think that our "business as usual" thinking demoralizes terrorists. It seems to me that really dedicated terrorists who have a good sense of history, count on the citizenry to stiffen their resolve at first, but then wear down over time with repeated attacks, followed by political negotiation behind the scenes for their real aims. Just look at what the IRA, PLO, and the FLN in Algeria did over time. Each group either achieved their goals outright over time, (Algeria for example) or have achieved some of their political goals by using terrorism as a political tool, (IRA in N. Ireland and the PLO in Palestine). What are your thoughts?
Mike German: Good point. The difference here is al Qaeda doesn't have a political agenda, it only has an extremist agenda.[My emphasis] The IRA, PLO, FLN all had political wings that worked to find a political solution, and used terrorism as a tactic to force the other side to come to the table. Al Qaeda is more of an extremist terrorist group, like white supremacists. Their goal is to exterminate the people they don't like and then everything will be fine. This is why they don't have any real political influence anywhere in the world, they offer no real solutions. This is why we need to treat them more like criminal organizations than political movements.
