Election Post #1

[ceebeegee]

I am so nervous about tomorrow I think I'm going to throw up. Kava kava is my friend.

Virginia, do me proud...please, please break for Obama.

Comments

[darksheik.livejournal.com]

I know, right?

I don't remember having chills in my stomach on November 1, 2004.

[minstrel70.livejournal.com]

Your guy can win many ways without Virginia. McCain can't. Relax, Obama's going to win.

[ceebeegee.livejournal.com]

I hope you're right--and I salute your generosity of spirit.

And it's also because I'm a Virginian, and for my state to go blue would be...well, incredible.

[alexlady.livejournal.com]

i have to tell you, last night i told don i felt like it was the night before a big audition, or a job interview!

eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.

[neoscribe.livejournal.com]

..and I thought there was no way in hell that Bush would be a two termer...
Beware the heartland. McCain ain't that far behind...

[minstrel70.livejournal.com]

He's far enough behind in all the Kerry blue states to guarantee those 252 EV go to Obama. IA (7) and CO (9) also look like locks. There's 268. It only takes one more red state, no matter how small, to put Obama over the top. He's polling over 50% in VA and FL, and ahead of McCain in all the other "old" tossups but MO, and very close in MT, NC, ND, and even red stalwart IN. It would be nothing short of miraculous for McCain to run the table. And if he doesn't, he has to take PA, where he trails by 7-10 points in the last polls.

Could it be close? Maybe. But it's much more likely to be an Obama blowout. RCP has him winning at least 278 comfortably and ahead in states totalling 338. My money is still on 384.

[ceebeegee.livejournal.com]

You're such an election geek, I love it! I love all the numbers crunching :)

[minstrel70.livejournal.com]

I used to be a very active campaign volunteer, working on several congressional, gubernatorial and state assembly campaigns back in the '90s. Being a bit of a math whiz and computer-savvy, I got involved in the returns analysis as part of the team that crunches the numbers on election night and determines when the candidate comes out to concede or claim victory. I could have told you, at least in the early '90s, which way a race was going to go based on as little as 5% of precinct returns, depending on where they came from and how big the margins were. Why the media get it so wrong so often is a mystery to me. I love that side of politics (I mostly hate the rest of it these days).

We knew by 8:05 on election night 1993 that Whitman was going to beat Florio, based on just two precincts, one in Newark and one in Camden, because she wasn't losing them by a 2:1 margin. She couldn't come out with a victory speech until much later, nor could the media call it, because most of the early returns favored Florio by a wide margin -- just not wide enough -- and it would have looked bad. But we knew, and it was really fun to watch and be part of the game.

Unfortunately, that's the only campaign I ever worked on that turned out the way I wanted. The next year's Senate campaign was clearly over just as early. At least that left me free to go drink :-)